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01/30/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Smug, introverted, standoffish.
Those are a few choice words that come to mind when describing New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. There are plenty of other adjectives used to characterize one of the most successful head coaches in the NFL, however, such as knowledgeable, strategic, supportive and meticulous.
And add appreciative and thankful to the list in painting a picture of the man who has made cut-off hoodies a fashion trend in the NFL. Fortunately, Belichick's attire is no match for the product he puts on the football field, though he admitted that "not for a second" could he ever imagined leading a team to its fifth Super Bowl in 11 years.
"I really just try to live in the moment, whatever that is," Belichick said on reminiscing on past accomplishments upon the Patriots' arrival in Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI. "Right now, it's here, and I'm happy to be here, believe me. There's no place I'd rather be.
Other points in time, I was dealing with other challenges, other teams and other situations. I tried to do the best I could in those situations with whatever responsibilities I had. I never really thought too much about where it was going to go."
Belichick reflected on his time with the Baltimore Colts, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos and New York Giants during his press conference from the team hotel in Indianapolis on Sunday. He mentioned how time consuming it was in dealing with head coaches and players as an assistant, and noted he never took the time to focus on where it would eventually take him.
He also expressed how vital it was to do your job and take care of business before expecting good things to come out of it. If one fails to do those things, Belichick remarked that "you are not really fulfilling your responsibilities to the team and the organization that is counting on you."
Those traits were fostered in Belichick's early years from his father, Steve, who passed away in 2005 after playing both college football and briefly in the NFL. From the time Bill was only four years old, Steve, who was an assistant coach at Vanderbilt University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the United States Naval Academy, played a major impact on his son's life and his love for football.
The elder Belichick also shared a Gatorade shower with his son, courtesy of linebacker Tedy Bruschi, following a Super Bowl XXXIX win over the Philadelphia Eagles -- the last of three Patriots' championships within a four-year span from 2001-04.
"He had a huge impact on my childhood, my love for the game and my involvement in the game as a coach, even though I played poorly," Bill Belichick said. "It was still a good experience to play, but coaching, really, has always been the love. I think a lot of little things he did [were] in terms of work ethic and teamwork. Being around the Naval Academy, of course, that is a very unique atmosphere, particularly as it relates to football, but the teamwork that comes with that and the commitment that those players and teams have, I saw at a young age."
It's no surprise that Belichick has cradled that teamwork aspect and instilled it within every organization he has been a part of. He was Bill Parcells' defensive coordinator during the New York Giants' first two Super Bowl runs, and many believe that Parcells wouldn't have garnered so much success in the Big Apple had it not been for Belichick's strategies. Belichick's defensive game plan in New York's 20-19 victory over Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV can be found in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Enter the new millennium, and Belichick's Patriots have been a model of consistency and an organization that other coaches and players are trying to emulate. Expert drafts and key additions through free agency have both played their part in advancing New England to where it is today.
Not known to tip his hand or give opposing teams any kind of leverage for an upcoming matchup, Belichick is already toeing the road to the Hall of Fame by amassing a sizzling 17-6 record in his postseason career. He is tied with Joe Gibbs for the third-most playoff wins in NFL history, trailing only Tom Landry (20) and Don Shula (19). By the way, Gibbs, Landry and Shula all have their busts on display in Canton.
Belichick is also one Super Bowl win away from tying Pittsburgh Hall of Famer Chuck Noll with four as a coach. He was asked on Sunday how accomplishing that feat would make him feel.
"It would make me feel pretty good, he said. "It's a great honor to be mentioned in the same conversation with Chuck. Chuck was the coach of the Steelers the first year I was coach of the Browns. I got to know him my first few years in the league. I coached with several coaches who coached under him at Pittsburgh. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Chuck and the job he did with his team and the organization. So, it is very flattering to be mentioned in the same sentence with Chuck Noll."
Much like Noll had with quarterback Terry Bradshaw, Belichick has had Tom Brady at his side throughout all of his success in New England. That may not have happened if it wasn't for former New York Jets linebacker Mo Lewis, who leveled then-New England starting quarterback Drew Bledsoe in Week 2 of the 2001 season, the year the Pats captured their first of back-to-back Super Bowl titles.
Brady has been the man ever since, and both he and Belichick earned their fifth Super Bowl appearance together -- the most ever by a head coach-quarterback duo -- following New England's 23-20 triumph over Baltimore in the 2011 AFC Championship. Noll and Bradshaw went to four.
Once again, the Patriots will have the Giants standing in their way for NFL supremacy when the two teams meet in Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Giants, of course, wiped out New England's perfect season back in 2007 with an upset win in Super Bowl XLII, and possess a stout defense that could shake up the Pats' plans for redemption.
Belichick reiterated on several occasions that all of the meetings between the storied franchises in the past carry no weight. He also mentioned how it's all about the current rosters, and that there's not too many coaches and players still around on either side from the previous Super Bowl meeting.
"We are where we are now, and we're different than where we were earlier in the season," said Belichick in referencing New York's 24-20 win over the Patriots back in November. "The Giants are where they are now, and I think they're different than where they were at different points of the season. To take it back years and years before that, I don't think it has too much bearing on anything. The team that wins Sunday will be the team that performs the best. That's what we are trying to strive our preparations for, is maximizing our performance on Sunday night."
As usual, Belichick will put all he has into Sunday's rematch with New York, which is nothing new for a man on the verge of fastening his legacy as a coaching mastermind. It's a foundation of success that was laid when Belichick first learned about the game, and decades later the young boy who sought out advice and knowledge from his father has been passing on that treasure chest of information to his own players and coaches.
With a win on Sunday, perhaps Belichick will finally be able to reflect on where all those years of learning and teaching has taken him.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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